China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and its implications for foreign businesses
China has adopted its recommendations for the development of the 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development. The new plan, covering the period 2026–2030, outlines how China intends to drive growth, deepen reforms, and promote green and digital transformation over the next five years. For foreign companies, the plan presents a mix of opportunities and challenges. The Ecovis consultants explain.
With its 15th Five-Year Plan, China aims to build a more innovative, sustainable, and secure economy that better serves its people and supports global progress. It revolves around three main ideas:
- High-quality development
- Comprehensive reform
- Greater openness.
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Economic direction
The new plan defines this period as a “critical stage” in China’s long-term modernisation. Growth should be driven by productivity, innovation and sustainability rather than expansion.
China wants to strengthen its domestic economy, reduce external vulnerabilities, and create a more self-sufficient and balanced growth model. The balanced growth model includes:
- Expanding the domestic consumer market
- Upgrading industrial capacity and technology
- Developing green energy and digital infrastructure
- Tightening national security in finance, data, and supply chains
For foreign investors, this means that access will continue, but with clear conditions. Participation will be welcomed mainly in sectors that help China achieve these strategic goals.
Industrial upgrading and the real economy
A major part of the plan focuses on building a modern industrial system centred on advanced manufacturing. Traditional industries such as steel, chemicals and machinery will be upgraded through digital transformation, automation and environmental standards.
At the same time, China will cultivate new “pillar industries”, including aerospace, new materials, clean energy and smart manufacturing. The state will continue to play an active role in supporting these industries through tax incentives, R&D funding and industrial policy coordination.
This industrial shift presents a dual challenge for foreign firms: while it opens new areas of demand, it also increases competition as Chinese companies move up the value chain and aim to compete globally in high-tech sectors.
Innovation, self-reliance and technology leadership
The plan continues China’s long-term ambition to become self-reliant in science and technology. It calls for major breakthroughs in core technologies such as semiconductors, advanced materials, biomanufacturing and AI.
The government will invest heavily in basic research, encourage private-sector innovation and expand national laboratories and technology clusters. Education, research and industry are to be fully integrated, with universities and businesses working together to produce new talent and discoveries.
For foreign companies, this environment offers potential for collaboration, but also signals that China wants to depend less on imported technologies. Regulations will be tightened in sensitive areas such as data, communications and defence-related technologies.
Focus on sustainability and green transition
Environmental protection and the green economy are central pillars of the plan. China intends to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and build a cleaner, low-carbon energy system. This includes:
- Expanding renewable energies such as solar, wind, hydro and nuclear
- Improving energy efficiency in cities and manufacturing
- Building green industrial parks and zero-carbon factories
- Promoting electric vehicles and recycling systems
For businesses, this shift means that green standards and ESG compliance will be non-negotiable. But it also creates a vast market for sustainable products, clean technologies, and environmental services.
“Foreign companies will need to integrate more deeply into China's politically driven growth model in the future: those who view China as a long-term strategic partner and not just as a market will be in a better position.”
Pingwen Hu, Senior Partner and Certified Public Accountant, ECOVIS Ruide Certified Public Accountants Co., Ltd, Shanghai, China
Domestic demand, services and consumption
The plan aims to make domestic consumption the main driver of economic growth. China wants to raise personal incomes, expand its middle class and stimulate consumer spending in high-quality goods and services. This means new opportunities in:
- Healthcare, medical technology and elderly care
- Education, professional training and childcare
- Digital services, smart homes and online entertainment
- Premium, sustainable and tech-enhanced consumer products
Opening up: broader access, stricter standards
Despite greater emphasis on self-reliance, China reaffirms its commitment to “high-standard opening up.” The government plans to
- further shorten the negative list that limits foreign investment
- expand openness in finance, digital trade, and services
- strengthen intellectual property protection and legal consistency
- use free trade zones and the Hainan Free Trade Port to pilot reforms
At the same time, access will be guided by national priorities. Foreign investors are welcome, but mainly where they support China’s modernisation goals in technology, green energy, logistics and advanced services. Foreign firms will need to align with local policy goals, build deeper partnerships and ensure compliance with data, cybersecurity and ESG regulations.
Global cooperation and the new Belt and Road Vision
The plan updates the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for a new era. Instead of massive infrastructure projects, the focus shifts to smaller, higher-quality and greener cooperation projects.
China aims to expand digital trade, AI cooperation and sustainable development partnerships under what it calls “high-quality Belt and Road cooperation.” This means new chances for international companies to join projects in energy, logistics and smart infrastructure, provided they meet sustainability and transparency standards.
Key opportunities for foreign companies
For foreign businesses, the 15th Five-Year Plan means practical opportunities to:
- Work on renewable energy and low-carbon technologies, supporting China’s green transition and carbon goals
- Partner on smart factories and automation as manufacturing becomes more digital, connected, and efficient
- Supply high-quality materials and sustainable products, meeting rising demand for advanced, eco-friendly solutions
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